Qatari mediators are trying to win United States and Iranian backing for a draft agreement meant to head off renewed fighting and possibly restart direct talks, in the most sustained diplomatic effort since the war began on February 28. The mediators travelled to Tehran on Monday night carrying a version of a draft that had been under negotiation for eight days, and both sides are now reviewing proposals put forward by the mediators. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that the two sides are still far from a deal, but the fact that a draft is moving between capitals at all is a sign that neither side has given up on diplomacy.
Why it matters
The terms under discussion are clear in outline, even if the draft itself has not been published. Iran has demanded an end to the United States naval blockade, sanctions relief and the release of frozen funds before it will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and it has condensed its seven step proposal so it could be carried out within two days. Iran foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran seven step proposal remained the basis of the talks, and the country has offered to restore security to the strait within two days of Washington meeting its conditions. Tehran position is that nuclear talks can begin only after all of its conditions are verified.
The pressure for a deal is coming from inside the administration as well as from outside it. Vice President JD Vance is urging an agreement, and he said that the president and he both feel pretty good about the prospects for potentially coming to a negotiated settlement, and that they are going to keep on working at it. Vance also reached out to Iran Security Chief Mohsen Rezaei about ceasefire terms, although no meeting has been scheduled. The vice president push matters because it shows that the argument for diplomacy is being made at the highest level, not only by mediators.
What happens next
The military facts on the ground have not gone away. Overnight on Monday, the United States carried out defensive strikes on Iran Qeshm Island, targeting surface to air missiles used against United States assets, according to a United States official, and Iran state news agency IRNA reported explosions on the island. As of Tuesday, the United States Central Command had not issued a formal public statement on the strikes, and Iranian authorities had not formally confirmed a United States attack. The strikes show that the war is still live, even while the talks continue, and that either side could still choose escalation.
What happens next will be decided by whether the draft can bridge the gap between the two sides conditions. Qatar foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari said both the United States and Iran were reviewing the proposals, and the mediators are working hard to narrow the gaps. If they succeed, the war could move toward a settlement, and the oil price, which fell to about 93 dollars a barrel on Thursday on hopes of diplomacy, would fall further. If they fail, President Trump has said he will soon decide whether to widen the war, and the region will learn what going further means.
